After an exceptional 2016 vintage, how has the mortgage business evolved in the first half of 2017? This is the question asked by the loan broker Natsis. Verdict below.
A dynamic 1st semester but…
On the basis of the results recorded during the first 6 months of the year, the broker notes that:
the number of files funded increased by 10% compared to the first half of 2016;
on the other hand, funding requests are down by 2% compared to last year in the corresponding period. The movement even made a serious boost between May and June (-18%). A tumble that should be put into perspective because of the historical results observed last year. Thus, if we compare with the first half of 2014 and 2015, demand flames with respectively + 56% and + 13%. In sum, ” the first half of 2017 seems to mark a gradual return to normal, ” says Natsis;
the intentions of renegotiations are weakening. They were almost halved in the first half: the proportion of intentions went from 22% in January 2016 to 11% in June 2017;
real estate rates stabilized at the end of the second quarter. An observation that masks 2 movements: in the first, the banks having achieved their objectives are progressively raising their scales; in the second, other institutions lower their interest rates in order to remain competitive.
What about the next months?
” If the first semester was very dynamic with + 10% of funded files compared to the first semester of 2016, the demand for funding is eroding from month to month, and the levers enjoyed by the borrowers are gradually falling “, notes Bella Roger, Communications and Studies Director of Natsis.
And it may not be over. Other factors could affect demand in the short term:
the evolution of real estate prices;
bank policies on interest rates;
the future decisions of the Minister of Territorial Cohesion
Second-time buyers laugh, primo cry
In the first half, the volume of first-time buyers (borrowers who buy for the first time) is down by 3%. They nevertheless represent the majority of borrowers (78%) ” and borrow 6% more, over more than one year more; with income up 1.4% and down 7%. “
As for second-time buyers, Natsis recorded a rise in borrowers in this category (+ 5%). They ” borrow 8% more, over 10 months more, with revenues higher by 1%. The contribution from savings drops by 8% in favor of the contribution from resale, ” says the broker. As for investors, they are down 3% (+ 6% in the 1st quarter but -12% in the 2nd quarter).
As for overall demand, it should decline in the coming months. ” The request for acquisition should slow down during the summer, which is fairly traditional. In September, rates should remain stable or continue their slow recovery according to the achievement of the banks’ objectives and the impact of the latest regulations on interest rate policies. For demand to recover, it is imperative that real estate prices settle, any additional tension will limit the purchasing power. In the short term, unless rebalancing between the purchasing power of households and prices, we expect a drop of 2 to 5% of demand, “concludes Bella Roger.